Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Cradle Trade - SPY


Corey of Afraidtotrade.com often mentions about cradle trade on his blog. This is a trend reversal setup and a must to have in your trading arsenal. The name of this setup was coined by Corey. Below is the Cradle definition from his presentation. The same applies for a bullish setup with prices breaking above 20 & 50 EMA.

Setup based on 5 min. chart.

  • Uses a 20 and 50 Exponential MA
  • Price breaks below 20 & 50 EMA,
    the EMAs Cross “bearishly,” then price “pulls back” to the confluence
  • Place Stop above EMA Confluence Zone
  • Target a Trend Reversal/Retest of Lows
  • Volume increase on break of major EMA's and volume contraction during the pull back to the confluence (Added)

The Best Cradles…
    • Form after a Lengthy Up/Downtrend
    • Are Confirmed by Basic Candles (bearish in this case - added)
    • Are Preceded by Divergences or
      “Three Push” Patterns
    Read about Cradle trade here

    Corey: "I'll be more confident if there's a candle pattern such as a doji or an evening star as price finds resistance at the cradle."

    SPY looked strong in the morning after the consumer confidence report. Price reached PDH retraced a little and hit PDH again. This time it formed a nice bearish engulfing candle. Price then moves below major EMA's (yellow = 20 EMA, gray = 50 EMA) on high volume. Price then pulls back on low volume at the confluence of the bearish EMA cross (20 EMA moves below 50 EMA) and form a doji. Corey calls this cradle doji. Next candle closes very weak. Entered short there. Price then breaks on high volume reaching the morning lows.

    Almost similar setup trade taken by Jamie in Dec. He explained it beautifully how to trade this setup. Notice that in this trade, the entry is above 50 EMA. Below is copy-paste of Jamie's chart and his explanation of the trade.



    "A good way to anticipate a reversal is to monitor the strength of the move back to the base of support. Friday's early euphoria on strong jobs data didn't last due to the strength of the $USD and its effect on commodities. Initially price pulls back on lighter volume, but once the 20 EMA gives way, volume on the downside accelerates forming a flag pole into support. Flags form on declining volume and once they break, volume accelerates all the way back down to pre-market levels and culminates in a mini-capitulation."

    Burn the setups to memory. The reward-risk ratio is very nice.

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